Pak unlikely to repeat Lord's glory

Posted by rukshanshamilk Sunday, April 18, 2010 ,

Pakistan and England are unlikely to hold the key to the ICC World T20, but as shock winners and huge flops last time, their fortunes will merit attention.

Shahid Afridi and Paul Collingwood's teams can only hope their Caribbean narratives are central to the plot, rather than mere diversions.
In truth, though, there has been little evidence - since England made a rainy exit from their own World Twenty20 and Pakistan then gloriously saw off Sri Lanka in the Lord's final last June - to suggest that the former are suddenly about to become world-beaters or the latter will defend their crown successfully.
It would be foolish, of course, to write off either in a format which might have been devised for surprise results and failed predictions if it was not so obvious commercial considerations clearly came first.
It is an illustration of how effectively Pakistan have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot in the intervening nine months that drastic English improvement is easier to imagine than mere consolidation from Afridi and Co.
England have had precious few Twenty20 opportunities to erase the memories of their infamous Lord's defeat by Holland or that Duckworth-Lewis debacle against West Indies at The Oval.
Unlike Pakistan, at least their captain remains - Paul Collingwood having apparently added a new dimension to his limited-overs power-hitting, and ensured his general stock has risen too thanks to the bulldog spirit which helped close out crucial Test draws against Australia at Cardiff and South Africa in Cape Town.
Successive drawn Twenty20 series have come at home to Australia - when autumn rain drenched any prospect of a result in either match - away to South Africa, and against Pakistan themselves in the United Arab Emirates.
The last of those provided a neat indication of each team's current position and reasonable pretensions to success in a major International Cricket Council tournament.
Pakistan were at that point on the third of their four captains in under a year,Shoaib Malik having since ceded to Afridi amid a collective blood-letting that is extreme even by the outlandish standards already well set over the years.
In summary, the captaincy tenures of last summer's genial World Twenty20 leader Younus Khan, Malik and Test specialist Mohammad Yousuf are all ended - the last-named having retired from all cricket for good measure - as the inquiry into Pakistan's singularly unsuccessful winter tour of Australia recommended stringent bans and fines for more or less everyone involved.
The upshot is that Pakistan will arrive in the Caribbean bereft of much talent at their disposal last summer - although the unpredictable Afridi and fellow all-rounder Abdul Razzaq remain eminently capable of winning Twenty20s largely on their own.
By comparison, England have had a benign but unremarkable time in the shortest format.
Their winter of discontent came in 2008/09 when captain Kevin Pietersen and coach Peter Moores lost their jobs.
Relatively minor shuffling of the pack has followed the disappointment on home soil last year. But the emergence of wicketkeeper-batsman Craig Kieswetterand middle-order man Eoin Morgan means they have two feasible contenders to be the player of any tournament.
With Kevin Pietersen apparently back in sync too and Collingwood reinvented, England look capable of hitting defendable scores or chasing successfully given a fair chance. But whether their current bowling staff is sufficiently developed and has the depth to keep them in games is unproven.
West Indies and Ireland are group opposition who give England an obvious chance to progress to the second stage at least.
But the sensible call is to look well beyond them and Pakistan - drawn with Australia and Bangladesh - in search of a tournament heavyweight.
Australia have plenty to prove after a hapless campaign in England last summer that made their hosts' performance look positively competent and has left them seeded ninth and bottom of the Test-playing countries this time round.
Ricky Ponting has since sacrificed Twenty20 from his repertoire, and there is every reason to expect Michael Clarke's Australia to respond to unfamiliar failure with a much more typical and lasting challenge.
Both Pakistan and inaugural winners India will have evident extra motivation to do the sub-continent proud this time, having gone out in the group stages of the 2007 World Cup in the Caribbean.
Mahendra Singh Dhoni's team have wall-to-wall talent from one to 15, and - like Australia - will want to forget what happened in England last year.
Crucial to the success of the tournament as a spectacle will be the progress or otherwise of West Indies. They ought to win through their group but will do well not to under-estimate Ireland, coached by former Windies batsman Phil Simmons.
Ireland, their qualifying tournament conquerors Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe make up the strongest 'minnow' contingent of any ICC tournament so far.
Success cannot be taken for granted against any of them - and in this format, Bangladesh could do much more than win the odd game.
They are hardly likely outright winners either, of course.
That honour must go to one of Sri Lanka, South Africa or India.
Last year's finalists Sri Lanka seemed to have the team for all occasions, until Afridi burst their bubble at Lord's.
South Africa, minus coach Mickey Arthur after a tough examination at home to England in the winter, will again have to prove their doubters wrong as they seek to defy the 'chokers' tag.
India are therefore a tentative choice to become the first country to win this title twice.

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